MODEL-PRICED SPORTS PICKS / PUBLIC RECORD
Sports picks,priced against the market.Every pick trackedin public.
We price matches with a statistical model, compare our prices with bookmaker odds, and only post a pick when the gap is above a fixed threshold. Every pick is time-stamped and logged with the odds taken, the stake, the closing odds and the result, win or lose.
18+ only. Picks are information, not betting advice. You can lose money on any bet.
- Time-stamp
- Before kick-off
- Bookmaker
- Licensed book
- Odds taken
- Posted price
- Stake
- 0.5 to 2 units
- Closing odds
- After the match
- CLV
- After the match
- Result
- Win or lose
Nothing is deleted.
THE PICK CARD
Every pick, logged the same way.
Time-stamped before kick-off with the bookmaker, the odds taken and the stake. After the match we add the closing odds, the CLV and the result, win or lose. Nothing is deleted.
See the public recordModel price.
A statistical model (goal-based for football, rating-based for other sports) estimates the probability of each outcome.Compare with the market.
We remove the bookmaker margin from current odds and compare. If our price differs from the best available licensed-bookmaker price by at least our threshold, it becomes a pick.Fixed staking.
Stakes are 0.5 to 2 units, set by a published formula, never by gut feel.Tracked in public.
Each pick is logged before kick-off with the bookmaker and odds. After the match we add the closing odds, closing line value (CLV) and result. Nothing is deleted.
MEASURE THE METHOD
Why closing line value
Over a few dozen bets, profit and loss is mostly luck. Whether a pick's odds beat the final pre-match odds (the closing line) is a faster, more honest signal of whether a method has any value. We show both, so you can judge for yourself.
How to read the numbersWhat we don't do
- No "guaranteed" wins, "locks" or confidence percentages.
- No hiding losing picks.
- No links to unlicensed bookmakers or prediction markets.
- We are not a bookmaker and don't take bets.
